Just Seeing Other People

Why NATO Without the U.S. Might Be Good for Europe and Canada

NATO has done its job. It deterred the Soviet Union, tied the Atlantic democracies together, and provided a framework for peace that lasted over 70 years. But alliances are like marriages... they age, they stretch, and sometimes, they just don’t fit anymore.

Europe isn’t facing a global ideological threat. It’s facing a regional one—Russia—and it doesn’t need the U.S. to deal with it. Meanwhile, America is pivoting toward the Pacific, preparing for a high-tech maritime standoff with China. That’s not a shared threat; it’s a split in worldview.

So maybe it’s time to admit it: we’re not breaking up with the U.S... we’re just seeing other people.

A World of Diverging Interests

Europe’s challenge is close-in and land-based. Russia’s aggression is brutal, but it's also constrained by geography and resources. This isn’t the Cold War. Europe has the population, economy, and industrial base to deter and defeat Russia on its own—if it chooses to take responsibility.

The U.S., on the other hand, is locked into a global containment strategy against China. It’s preparing for war in the Taiwan Strait. It’s building military posture across the Indo-Pacific. Europe doesn’t need to be in that fight, and frankly, neither does Canada. We don’t share their oceans, their threats, or their compulsions.

And if we’re honest, NATO’s structure assumes we do.

The Problem with Article 5

The foundation of NATO is Article 5: an attack on one is an attack on all. That worked when the threat was shared. But today it can act more like a trap door. If the U.S. decides to confront China militarily, Article 5 might drag allies into a war they neither chose nor need.

That’s not defense. That’s automaticity. And it’s dangerous.

Europe and Canada need strategic autonomy—not just for self-respect, but for survival. That doesn’t mean we never show up. It means we show up when it matters, by choice, not obligation.

The New Role for Canada: Offshore Munitions Superpower

Canada’s not a bystander in this realignment. We’re a pillar.

With a resource-rich, stable, and strategically located economy, Canada becomes the offshore munitions superpower Europe needs. We sit on a treasure chest of:

• Steel and aluminum for armor and vehicles

• Nickel and battery metals for electric platforms

• Manufacturing capacity with room to grow

Europe is trying to scale up its defense industry while juggling internal politics and green targets. Canada offers space, certainty, and speed. Our ports, rail lines, and regulatory climate are tailor-made to serve as the third echelon of European readiness.

Rare Earth Arsenal: The Counter to China’s Monopoly

But it’s not just about bullets and tanks. It’s about chips, drones, satellites, and missiles. And those systems all rely on rare earth minerals.

China controls over 80% of global rare earth refining capacity. That’s not a supply problem—it’s a geopolitical stranglehold.

Canada has the way out. We’re sitting on one of the most robust deposits of neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and more. We can supply the entire democratic world... if we choose to build fast and treat it like the national security issue it is.

Canada can be the counterweight to China’s rare earth hegemony. And that matters a lot more to Europe than being a spare soldier in someone else’s island war.

Arctic View, Atlantic Backbone

Let’s not forget geography. Europe cannot secure the Arctic alone. After the U.S., Canada is the only democracy with Arctic depth and a front-row seat to the polar theater.

The North is opening—sea lanes, missile paths, and surveillance corridors. Russia knows it. China knows it. Canada has to own it.

And in a NATO realigned for this century, our Arctic positioning becomes indispensable. We’re not just supplying the war effort. We’re holding the flank.

Freedom to Say No Means Freedom to Prevent War

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: if the U.S. calls tomorrow, asking us to join a war with China, we might want to say no.

And if we’re still bound by Article 5—or even just political pressure through NATO—we might not be able to.

By detaching from automatic obligations, we gain something rare in geopolitics: discretion. Moral and strategic autonomy. The ability to decide when we fight, how we fight, and whether fighting helps or hurts.

And here's the deeper play... not being locked in might help keep the U.S. from charging in too fast.

If they know we won’t automatically follow, they may slow down. Stay at the table longer. Think twice before escalating. Distance doesn’t make us disloyal. It makes us a stabilizer.

Not a Breakup, Just Growing Up

This isn’t about leaving America behind. It’s about growing up. Europe becomes fully responsible for its own defense. Canada becomes a full-spectrum partner—industrial, strategic, Arctic, and mineral. The U.S. becomes freer to pivot, without expecting backup on every front.

We’re not burning the alliance. We’re building something better. Looser. Smarter. More suited to the world we actually live in.

So no, we’re not breaking up with the U.S. We still talk. We still care. But as our priorities diverge... we're just seeing other people.